\newcommand{\thistitle}{Lecture 1: Organisation \& Introduction}

\input{title.tex}


\section{Administration}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Team Details}

  Prof. Dr. Tom Brown

  Department of `Digital Transformation in Energy Systems', Institute of Energy Technology

  I specialise in the modelling of energy systems to meet strict
  greenhouse gas emission targets. I work at the intersection of
  engineering, economics, informatics, mathematics \& meteorology.

  \vspace{.4cm}

  Dr. Fabian Neumann is a scientist in the group and will lead the tutorials; he can also answer any organisational questions (\hrefc{mailto:f.neumann@tu-berlin.de}{f.neumann@tu-berlin.de}).

  \vspace{.4cm}

  Group website: \urlc{https://www.tu.berlin/ensys}

  Personal website: \urlc{https://nworbmot.org/}


\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Course Website}

  You can find lecture notes, exercise sheets and all other information on ISIS:

  \urlc{https://isis.tu-berlin.de/course/view.php?id=49201}

  Course ISIS name: [WiSe 2026/27] Energy Economics

  %Password: MeritordeR21

  Announcements will also be made there, and you can ask questions in the discussion forum.

  Lecture slides will be available shortly before each lecture and online until after the exam.

  Old video recordings of the lectures from 2022/3 will also be available.

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Course Structure: 6 ECTS}


  The course has 6 ECTS.

  Registration:
  \begin{itemize}
  \item via MTS (up to one week before the exam)
  \item Erasmus: try via MTS, if that fails, email Dr. Fabian Neumann
  \end{itemize}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Written exam in presence}

  \begin{itemize}
  \item 90-minute written exam in presence
  \item First exam on 15.02.2027, second exam/resit on 02.04.2027
  \item No materials may be used in exam except calculator
  \item Sample exam in the last week of lectures
  \item Content: as in lecture and tutorials
  \item Voluntary group project (six unsupervised study periods in Jan) can boost grade by 5 points (5\% of total)
  \end{itemize}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{SoSe 27: Course `Energy Systems'}

  6 ECTS course led by me and Dr. Fabian Neumann.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item Whereas `Energy Economics' focuses on present and near-term, `Energy Systems' looks to the future
  \item How do we design an energy system for climate neutrality?
  \item Focus on managing renewable variability in space and time
  \item Storage, demand-side management, and coupling to transport, buildings and industry
  \item Deep-dives on time series, grid modelling and optimisation theory 
  \end{itemize}


  %\hrefc{https://isis.tu-berlin.de/course/view.php?id=44803}{Course ISIS page}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{SoSe 27: Course `Data Science for Energy System Modelling'}

  6 ECTS course led by Dr. Fabian Neumann.

  \begin{itemize}
  \item Students get hands-on experience modelling and analysing future energy systems
  \item All coursework in programming language Python plus associated libraries
  \item Focus on renewable energy resources, storage and network infrastructures
  \item Working with real data on weather, land use, power plants, grids and demand
  \item Learn about the challenges and solutions for a successful transition towards climate-neutral energy systems across the globe
  \end{itemize}


  %\hrefc{https://isis.tu-berlin.de/course/view.php?id=44803}{Course ISIS page}
\end{frame}


%% \begin{frame}
%%   \frametitle{Seminar `New Developments in Energy Markets' (3 ECTS)}

%%   \begin{itemize}
%%   \item Students analyse a current topic in energy markets, prepare a presentation and present it for discussion
%%   \item Presentations as a block at the end of the lecture-free period
%%   \item Supervision and discussion led by Prof. Erdmann, Prof. Grübel and scientific employees of the department
%%   \item Students work on topic with a supervisor during semester
%%   \item Topics will be presented in November 2024, presentations in March 2025
%%   \item Example topics: market reform, industry flexibility, tariff design, smart meters, EEG, European Green Deal, e-mobility, industrial decarbonisation, flexibility markets, etc.
%%   \end{itemize}

%%   %The seminar has \hrefc{https://isis.tu-berlin.de/course/view.php?id=35945}{its own ISIS page}.

%% \end{frame}




%\begin{frame}
%  \frametitle{Seminar `New Research in Energy System Modelling'}

%  Available as stand-alone (3 ECTS) or as module in Energy Systems (9 ECTS)

%  \begin{itemize}
%  \item Students analyse a recent research paper on energy system modelling looking at transformation of energy system 2025-2050
%  \item Students prepare a 20-minute presentation and present it for discussion
%  \item Presentations as a block at the end of the lecture-free period
%  \item Supervision and discussion together with Prof. Gunnar Luderer's group at PIK (Potsdam Institute für Klimafolgenforschung)
%  \item Students work on topic with a supervisor during semester
%  \item Topics will be presented in November 2023, presentations in April 2024
% \item Example topics: integration of renewable energy, hydrogen trade, storage modelling, endogenous learning, role of carbon capture
%  \end{itemize}

%  The seminar has \hrefc{https://isis.tu-berlin.de/course/view.php?id=36589}{its own ISIS page}.

%\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Schedule for Lectures and Tutorials}

  \begin{tabular}{@{} llll @{}}
    \toprule
    Day & Time & Location & Event \\
    \midrule
    Tuesday  & 1400-1600  & MA 005 & Lecture \\
    Thursday  & 1400-1600  & MA 004 & Lecture \\
   Thursday  & 1600-1800  & HFT-TA 131 & Tutorial \\
 \bottomrule
  \end{tabular}

  \vspace{.2cm}
  First lecture: Tuesday 13th October 2026, last lecture: Thursday 11th February 2027

  First tutorial: Thursday 29th October 2026, last tutorial: Thursday 11th February 2027
  \vspace{.2cm}


\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Group work}

  \begin{itemize}
  \item Voluntary group work (up to 5 students)
  \item 6 study periods instead of lectures and exercises
  \item Probably starting 04. or 11.01.2027
  \item Programming needed (can use Python/Matlab/R)
  \item Report and presentation
  \item Boost grade by up to 5 points (5\%)
  \item Rewards: Deeper understanding of the topic,
    methodological competence and extra bonus points
    for the exam
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Literature}


  There is no book which covers all aspects of this course; the world of energy markets is also changing fast.  The following are at least concise:
  \begin{itemize}
  \item G.~Erdmann, A.~Praktiknjo, P.~Zweifel, ``Energy Economics - Theory and Applications,'' Springer, 2017
  \item M.~Grubb et al, ``Planetary Economics,'' Routledge, 2013, \hrefc{https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Planetary-Economics-FULL-Complimentary-Version.pdf}{available online}
  \item S.C.~Bhattacharyya, ''Energy Economics. Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance,'' Springer, 2011
          \item D.R.~Biggar, M.R.~Hesamzadeh, ``The Economics of Electricity
            Markets,'' Wiley, 2014
     \item  C.A.~Dahl, ``International Energy Markets: Understanding Pricing, Policies, and Profits,'' PennWell, 2004
    \item S.~Stoft, ``Power System Economics: Designing Markets for Electricity,'' IEEE Press. 2002
  \end{itemize}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Course outline}

\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{7cm}

  \begin{itemize}
    \item Measuring energy, energy balances
    \item Basics of microeconomics
    \item Financial management
    \item Electricity markets
    \item Electricity grids
    \item Supporting renewables
    \item Emissions markets
  \end{itemize}
  \end{column}

  \begin{column}{7cm}

  \begin{itemize}
    \item Resource management
    \item Oil markets
    \item Gas markets
    \item Learning curves and long-term dynamics
    \item Sector coupling
    \item Climate economics
    \item Current research topics
  \end{itemize}

  \end{column}
\end{columns}
\end{frame}



\section{History and Definition of Energy Economics}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Average energy use over time}

  It is hard to exaggerate the historical discontinuity of modern energy consumption.


  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=6cm]{average_power_nonlog.png}

  \source{Sørensen, ``Renewable Energy'', 1979}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Average energy use over time}

  A logarithmic time axis is necessary. Solid line is world average, dashed lines show societies with highest and lowest energy use.


  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=6cm]{average_energy_log.png}

  \source{Sørensen, ``Renewable Energy'', 1979}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Several energy transitions}

  Energy transitions from muscle to biomass to coal to oil and gas, next: low-carbon electricity?


  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=6cm]{history_fuel_sources.png}

  \source{Sørensen, ``Renewable Energy'', 1979}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Primary energy growth}

  Extraordinary growth in primary energy consumption since 1950s, much in oil and gas.

  \centering  \includegraphics[height=7cm]{primary_energy_world-1800-2024.png}

  \source{\hrefc{https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption}{Our World in Data, 2025}}

\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Primary energy consumption is unevenly distributed}


  \centering  \includegraphics[height=7.5cm]{world-map-per_capita_energy-2024.png}

  \source{\hrefc{https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption}{Our World in Data, 2025}}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Electricity: rate of change is important}

  Wind and solar are growing fast, each close to 10\% of world electricity in 2025.

  \centering  \includegraphics[height=7cm]{share-elec-by-source-2026.png}

  \source{\hrefc{https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix}{Our World in Data, 2026}}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Electricity: rate of change is important}

  In OECD countries, coal generation pushed out by gas and renewables; ended in UK in 2024.

  \centering  \includegraphics[height=7cm]{cb-coal-2024.png}

  \source{\href{https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-UK/}{Carbon Brief, 2024}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Economic development and energy use go together}

  Energy demand versus GDP in 2024 (NB: logarithmic scales).


  \centering  \includegraphics[height=7cm]{gdp-versus-energy-to-2024.png}


  \source{\hrefc{https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-use-per-person-vs-gdp-per-capita?overlay=download-vis}{World In Data, 2025}}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Economic development and energy use go together}

  Modern prosperity depends on a functioning energy supply for electricity, warmth/cooling, mobility and energy-intensive food and products.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=6cm]{Relationship-between-Energy-Consumption-and-Human-Development-Index-Data-from-106-107_W640.jpg}

  \source{\hrefc{http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su3010097}{Slaus \& Jacobs}, 2011}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Fossil-fuel intensity is decreasing}


  \centering
\includegraphics[height=7cm]{Fossil-Fuel-Energy-Intensity-for-Selected-Countries-1970-2008-Data-from-36_W640.jpg}

  \source{\hrefc{http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su3010097}{Slaus \& Jacobs}, 2011}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Why `energy economics'?}

  Like any area where there are diverse uses for a good with different
  value to consumers, as well as scarcity on the supply side leading
  to different supply costs, markets can play a role in allocating
  goods. Economics is the study of this allocation.


  This raises further questions:
  \begin{itemize}
  \item   What makes energy different to other goods?
    \item Why a whole subject `energy economics'?
    \item  Why is energy politically so important?
    \item How does energy influence geopolitics?
    \item What questions does `energy economics' try to answer?
  \end{itemize}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{What makes energy economics different from regular economics?}

  The unique features of energy are numerous:
  \begin{itemize}
    \item \alert{Essential for modern life}: for farming, cooking, lighting, comfort in buildings (heating and cooling), communication, mobility, production of most goods. This makes it a \alert{political concern}.
    \item   \alert{Essential to all economic activity}. Cf. negative economic consequences of electricity blackouts in South Africa, European gas crisis of 2021-2022.
    \item Reserves of fossil fuels and production capacity/minerals for renewables \& storage are \alert{concentrated in a few countries}. Geopolitics!
    \item  \alert{Large externalities}: most greenhouse gas emissions come from use of fossil fuels in energy, leads to climate breakdown; air pollution leads to widespread health impacts; for nuclear in meltdown and waste risk; for renewables in landscape impact.
    \item \alert{High potential for innovation and cost reduction}: wind, solar, batteries, electrolysers.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{What makes energy economics different from regular economics?}

  \begin{itemize}
    \item Energy is \alert{abundant} in nature, but mostly not immediately available for doing useful work.
  \item Infrastructure (transmission, generators) requires \alert{long periods} of planning, investment and operation. Leads to slow change - inertia!
   \item In many markets there are \alert{monopoly structures}, which are resistant to market solutions and need regulation (e.g. transmission networks, but also vertically-integrated utilities in some regions).
    \item Infrastructure \alert{property rights} (e.g. underground, hydro) are sometimes with public rather than private sector.
    \item Some \alert{risks are diffuse and widespread} (nuclear, hydro, landscape impact of wind).
  \end{itemize}

  \source{Zweifel et al, Energy Economics, 2017}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{What questions does energy economics try to answer?}

  Here is a typical selection of energy economics questions:
  \begin{itemize}
    \item How do we allocate consumption and production of energy by existing assets (short run)?
    \item How should we investment in energy consumption and production assets in the long run?
    \item How can we most efficiently reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution from the energy sector?
    \item Wind and solar power are low-cost, but how do we efficiently deal with their variability?
    \item How do we design markets for variable renewable energy?
    \item Is a decentral system design better than a centralised one?
    \item Can we protect vulnerable consumers from energy market volatility?
  \end{itemize}



\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Guidelines for Energy Policy: Trilemma}

  What should a well-functioning energy system look like? We design with respect to three goals:

\begin{columns}[T]

  \begin{column}{5.5cm}


  \vspace{1cm}

    \begin{tikzpicture}[thick,scale=1.3]

      \coordinate (O) at (0,0);
      \coordinate (A) at (2.5,0);
      \coordinate (B) at (1.25,2);
      \draw (O)--(A)--(B)--cycle;
      \draw (1.25,2.2) node[green]{sustainability};
      \draw (-0.2,-0.2) node[red]{reliability};
      \draw (2.5,-0.2) node[blue]{affordability};
  \end{tikzpicture}

  \end{column}


  \begin{column}{8cm}
\begin{itemize}
  \item \alert{Sustainability}: Respect environmental constraints (greenhouse gases, air quality, preservation of wildlife), as well as social and political constraints (public acceptance of transmission lines, onshore wind, nuclear power)
  \item \alert{Reliability}: Ensure energy services are delivered whenever needed, even when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shining, and even when components fail
  \item \alert{Affordability}: Deliver energy at a reasonable cost
  \end{itemize}

  \end{column}
\end{columns}


  \vspace{.3cm}

  Some of these policy targets can come into \alert{conflict} - an \alert{energy trilemma}.

\end{frame}


\section{Energy Economics Defined by Crises}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{History of energy economics: Jevons' Coal Question in 1865}

\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{4cm}
  \centering
\includegraphics[height=7.5cm]{Jevons-exponential_growth.jpg}
  \end{column}

  \begin{column}{10cm}

    In 1865 William Stanley Jevons published \alert{The Coal Question}, whose concern was the exhaustion of coal reserves in Britain given exponentially rising demand.

  \begin{itemize}
    \item ``With coal almost any feat is possible or easy; without it we are thrown back into the laborious poverty of early times.''
    \item ``I must point out the painful fact that such a rate of growth will before long render our consumption of coal comparable with the total supply. In the increasing depth and difficulty of coal mining we shall meet that vague, but inevitable boundary that will stop our progress.''
    \item He reviews renewables, including wind used to pump water up into reservoirs, and also green hydrogen, before dismissing them all.
  \end{itemize}

  \end{column}
\end{columns}

\source{\hrefc{https://oll.libertyfund.org/title/jevons-the-coal-question}{Jevons,1865}}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{History of energy economics: Jevons' Coal Question in 1865}

\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{4cm}
  \centering
\includegraphics[height=7.5cm]{Jevons-exponential_growth.jpg}
  \end{column}

  \begin{column}{10cm}

  \begin{itemize}
    \item \alert{Jevons' Paradox}: ``It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth...Whatever, therefore, conduces to increase the efficiency of coal, and to diminish the cost of its use, directly tends to augment the value of the steam-engine, and to enlarge the field of its operations.''
    \item ``If we lavishly and boldly push forward in the creation and distribution of our riches, it is hard to over-estimate the pitch of beneficial influence to which we may attain in the present. But the maintenance of such a position is physically impossible. We have to make the momentous \alert{choice between brief greatness and longer continued mediocrity}.''
  \end{itemize}

  \end{column}
\end{columns}

\source{\hrefc{https://oll.libertyfund.org/title/jevons-the-coal-question}{Jevons,1865}}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Coal in the UK: what actually happened}

  1865 was roughly the time the exponential growth flattened out into a standard \alert{S-curve}.

  \centering  \includegraphics[height=7cm]{uk-coal_demand.png}

  \source{\href{https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-UK/}{Carbon Brief, 2024}}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{1972: Limits to Growth}

  \begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{7cm}
  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=7cm]{800px-Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg.png}
  \end{column}
  \begin{column}{7cm}


    1972 report \alert{The Limits to Growth}, commissioned by the Club of Rome, examined consequences of exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources with a computer simulation.

  \begin{itemize}
    \item Conclusion: ``the most probable result will be a rather \alert{sudden and uncontrollable decline} in both population and industrial capacity''.
    \item But ignores role of technological progress.
   \item    Growth versus limits versus progress: debate continues today.
  \end{itemize}
  \end{column}
  \end{columns}

  \source{\hrefc{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth}{Limits to Growth}}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{1970s oil crisis}

  In 1973 OPEC led by Saudi Arabia embargoed oil in response to the Yom Kippur War.   Oil price jumps from 4 to 12 USD/barrel, before rising further in 1979 crisis following Iranian Revolution.

  Fossil fuels are intimately tied to \alert{geopolitics}. Triggered blooming of energy studies.

  \includegraphics[width=7.8cm]{Nominalrealoilprices1968-2006.png}
  \includegraphics[width=5.8cm]{sorry_no_gas.jpg}

\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{1973 oil crisis as a catalyst for change}

  In 1972, 92\% of Denmark's energy consumption came from imported oil.

  Catalyst for many people (mostly \href{https://xkcd.com/793/}{physicists} - that's another story)
  to rethink energy supply: Amory Lovins (`Soft Energy Paths' 1976-7); Art Rosenfeld on Energy Efficiency; Union of Concerned
  Scientists report `Energy Strategies: Toward a Solar Future' (1980); Bent Sørensen; Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies; Le Groupe de Bellevue, ALTER: A Study of a Long-Term Energy Future
for France based on 100\% Renewable Energies (Paris, 1978); Wolf Häfele, Jeanne Anderer,
A. McDonald and Nebojsa Nakicenoviç, Energy in a Finite World
(Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1981), many others...
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{1975: Bent Sørensen: 1st consistent 100\% RE scenario}

  In 1975 Bent Sørensen published a scenario for 100\% renewable energy in Denmark.
  He dealt with the variability of wind (with hydrogen) \& solar thermal (with TES).


  \begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{7cm}

    %trim=left bottom right top, clip
    \includegraphics[trim={0 0 0 0},clip,height=6.5cm]{1975-fig4.png}
  \end{column}

  \begin{column}{7cm}

    \centering
    %trim=left bottom right top, clip
    \includegraphics[trim={0 0 0 0},clip,height=6.5cm]{1975-fig2.png}


  \end{column}
\end{columns}

\source{\href{https://doi.org/10.1126/science.189.4199.255}{Sørensen (1975) Science}}
\end{frame}






\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Gas crisis of 2021-22; replay in 2026?}

  Russian re-invasion of Ukraine led to a geopolitical crisis, halt to almost all Russian gas imports and gas price peaks in 2022 of 17 times the previous equilibrium price.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=7cm]{ttf-2020-2026-chatgpt.png}

  \source{ChatGPT, 2026}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{German 2022 electricity prices were six times higher than 2020}

  Gas powerplants often set the price in European electricity markets, leading to exploding prices.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=14cm]{strom-jahrespreise-2022.png}

  \source{\hrefc{https://first-energy.net/energieeinkauf/report-strompreisentwicklung}{First Energy, 2022}}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{2022 was biggest energy market crisis since 1970s (or ever?)}

  All major energy carriers were hit in the 2022 crisis: oil, coal, gas and electricity.
  (`Real prices' means inflation-adjusted prices, as opposed to non-adjusted `nominal prices'.)

  \vspace{.5cm}

    \includegraphics[trim={0 0 0 0},clip,width=6.8cm]{oil-coal-2022.png}
    \includegraphics[trim={0 0 0 0},clip,width=6.8cm]{gas-2022.png}

    \source{\hrefc{https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/energy-shock-could-sap-global-growth-years}{World Bank, 2022}}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Impact of gas crisis is worldwide thanks to global LNG market}


  \includegraphics[height=7.5cm]{iea-gas-asia-2022.png}


  \source{\hrefc{https://twitter.com/KarstenNeuhoff/status/1580135528686850048}{IEA via Karsten Neuhoff, 2022}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{2026 oil crisis after US/Israeli attack on Iran}

  Huge consequences, especially in Asia where folks rely on Liquefied
  Petroleum Gas (LPG) for cooking; many forced into working from home.
  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=7cm]{oil_prices_2026.png}

  \source{ChatGPT, 2026}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Today: urgent need for energy market reform}

  The list of necessary reforms is long and diverse:
  \begin{itemize}
    \item Current tax and subsidy structure: e.g. electricity heavily taxed
    compared to gas and oil for heating, hindering switch to heat
    pumps (solutions: reduce EEG-Umlage/Stromsteuer, raise CO$_2$ price on fossil fuels, subsidise heat pumps)
    \item Insufficient incentives for flexible demand and storage
    \item Expansion of wind and solar too slow in many regions
    \item More locational signals for demand and supply coordination
    \item Need more incentives for building renovations
    \item Further digitalisation of energy use and supply
    \item Investment incentives for decarbonisation of industry, hydrogen infrastructure
  \end{itemize}

\end{frame}


\section{Introduction to Energy Transitions}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Historic Energy Transitions: Biomass to Hydrocarbons and Electricity}

  From 1800 to 2010 biomass dominance replaced by hydrocarbons and electricity. Fossil fuel shares steady since 1970. $f$ is fraction of primary energy supply.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=6cm]{smil-fischer_pry.png}


  \source{Vaclav Smil, ``Energy Transitions'', 2010}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Renewables reached 56\% of gross electricity in Germany in 2025}

  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=7.6cm]{Fig2_Gross electricity production in Germany 1990 2025.png}

  \source{\hrefc{https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts}{Clean Energy Wire, 2026}}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Build-out rates for wind and solar need to increase rapidly}

  Germany has a target of 80\% renewable electricity by 2030, 100\% by 2035.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=7cm]{eroeffnungsbilanz-vre.png}

  \source{\hrefc{https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/Energie/220111_eroeffnungsbilanz_klimaschutz.pdf?__blob=publicationFile}{BMWK, 2022}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{1900: Where's the car?}

  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=7.5cm]{seba-1900.png}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{1913: Where's the horse?}

  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=7.5cm]{seba-1913.png}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Electric vehicles take off, first in Norway}


  \centering
\includegraphics[height=7.5cm]{bilsalg_annual-2026.png}

  \source{\hrefc{https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/}{Robbie Andrew, 2026}}

\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Electric vehicles: Germany catching up?}


  \centering
\includegraphics[height=7.5cm]{oet-de-evs-2026H2.png}

  \source{\hrefc{https://openenergytracker.org/en/docs/germany/emobility/}{Open Energy Tracker, 2026}}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Climate Breakdown: 2015 Paris Agreement}

  The 2015 Paris Agreement pledged its signatories to
 `pursue efforts to limit [global warming above pre-industrial levels] to \alert{1.5$^\circ$C}' and
   hold `the increase...to \alert{well below 2$^\circ$C}'.
  These targets were chosen to avoid potentially irreversible \alert{tipping points} in the Earth's systems.


  \begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{9.5cm}

  \includegraphics[width=10cm]{nclimate3013-f1.jpg}
\end{column}
\begin{column}{4.5cm}

  \vspace{.3cm}

  WAIS: West Antarctic Ice Sheet ($\Rightarrow$ 5m sea level rise)

  \vspace{.2cm}

  Greenland (7m)

  \vspace{.2cm}

  THC: thermohaline circulation (warms Europe)

  \vspace{.2cm}

  ENSO: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (extreme weather)

  \vspace{.2cm}

  EAIS: East Antarctic Ice Sheet ($>50$ m)

\end{column}
  \end{columns}

\source{\hrefc{https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3013}{`Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris'}, Nature Climate Change, 2016}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{The Global Carbon Dioxide Challenge: Net-Zero Emissions by 2050}

  \begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{7.5cm}

  \includegraphics[width=8cm]{ipcc-sr15}


\end{column}
\begin{column}{6cm}
  \begin{itemize}
\item Scenarios for global CO$_2$ emissions that limit warming to 1.5$^\circ$C about industrial levels (\alert{Paris agreement})
\item Today emissions \alert{still rising}
\item Level of use of negative emission technologies (NET) depends on rate of progress
\item 2$^\circ$C target without NET also needs
  rapid fall by 2050
\item Common theme: \alert{net-zero by 2050}
\end{itemize}
\end{column}
  \end{columns}

    \source{\hrefc{http://ipcc.ch/report/sr15/}{IPCC SR15 on 1.5C, 2018}}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{The Greenhouse Gas Challenge: Net-Zero Emissions by 2050}

  Paris-compliant 1.5$^\circ$~C scenarios from European Commission for \alert{net-zero GHG in EU by 2050}. This target has been adopted by the EU and enshrined in the \alert{European Green Deal}.

  \vspace{.4cm}

  %Figure 6 from https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_en.pdf
  \includegraphics[width=14cm]{eu-lts-net-zero.png}


    \source{\hrefc{https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_en.pdf}{European Commission `Clean Planet for All', 2018}}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{It's not just about electricity demand...}

  %GHG in 2016 are 4.291~Gt, CO2 is 3.489 ~Gt without LULUCF and without indirect
  %Global is 36.2 Gt (EU figure from carbonbrief excludes LULUCF, so assume global also)
%https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-set-to-rise-2-percent-in-2017-following-three-year-plateau
  EU28 \co2{} emissions in 2016 (total 3.5~Gt \co2, 9.7\% of global):

  \centering
    % left bottom right top
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0.7cm 0 0.5cm,width=12cm]{EU28-emissions_pie-2016-CO2-190311.pdf}

%  ...\alert{but} wind and solar will dominate primary energy in all sectors, so electrification is critical.

  \source{Brown, data from \hrefc{https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/national-emissions-reported-to-the-unfccc-and-to-the-eu-greenhouse-gas-monitoring-mechanism-13}{EEA}}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{...but electrification of other sectors is critical for decarbonisation}

\alert{Electrification is essential} to decarbonise sectors such as
transport, heating and industry, since we can use low-emission
electricity from e.g. wind and solar to displace fossil-fuelled
transport with electric vehicles, and fossil-fuelled heating with
electric heat pumps.

Some scenarios show a \alert{doubling or more of electricity demand}.

  \vspace{.7cm}

  \begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{6cm}
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=6cm,clip=true]{tesla.jpg}
\end{column}
\begin{column}{6cm}

  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=6cm,clip=true]{640px-Heat_Pump.jpg}
\end{column}
\end{columns}



\source{Tesla; heat pump: \hrefc{https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10795550}{Kristoferb at English Wikipedia}}

\end{frame}





\begin{frame}{Efficiency of renewables and sector coupling}


  \includegraphics[width=\linewidth,trim=2.7cm 20cm 3.2cm 1.8cm,clip=true]{bmwi-whitepaper-figure_18.pdf}

  \source{\hrefc{https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Publikationen/whitepaper-electricity-market.html}{BMWi White Paper 2015}}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}{Not just climate change: air pollution is a silent killer}

  Air pollution from fossil fuel burning is linked to higher mortality (deaths) and morbidity (diseases, e.g. aggravation of asthma).

\includegraphics[width=6.8cm]{who-air-2.jpg}
      \includegraphics[width=6.8cm]{air-who-1.png}

  \source{\href{https://www.who.int/health-topics/air-pollution}{World Health Organisation}}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}[fragile]
  \frametitle{Why focus on wind and solar for electricity generation?}
    \begin{columns}[T]
      \begin{column}{4cm}
        \begin{itemize}
        \item construction and operation have low greenhouse gas emissions
        \item good wind and sun are available in many parts of the world
        \item worldwide potential that exceeds demand by many factors
        \item rapidly falling costs
        \end{itemize}
      \end{column}
      \begin{column}{5cm}
        \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=4.5cm,clip=true]{SolarGIS-Solar-map-Germany-de}
      \end{column}
      \begin{column}{5cm}
        \vspace{.8cm}
        \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=5.5cm,clip=true]{43_Mittlere_Windgeschwindigkeit_100_m_Deutschland}
      \end{column}
    \end{columns}


\end{frame}


\begin{frame}{Worldwide potentials}


    \begin{columns}[T]
      \begin{column}{8.5cm}
  \centering
    \includegraphics[width=8.7cm]{global_potentials.png}

      \end{column}
      \begin{column}{6cm}

    \vspace{.5cm}
        \begin{itemize}
        \item Potentials for wind and solar exceed current demand by many factors (ignoring variability)
        \item Other renewable sources include wave, tidal, geothermal, biomass and hydroelectricity
        \item Uranium depends on the reactor: conventional thermal reactors can extract 50-70 times less than fast breeders
        \end{itemize}
      \end{column}
    \end{columns}

      \source{\hrefc{http://solarmarketpathways.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NSC-Achieving-High-PV-Penetration-160526.pdf}{Perez et al, Applied Policy, 2016}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Low cost of wind \& solar per MWh in 2017 (NB: ignores variability)}

  LCOE = \alert{Levelised Cost of Energy} = Total Costs $/$ Energy Output
  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=14cm]{lazard-cropped.jpg}

  \source{\hrefc{https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-2017/}{Lazard's LCOE Analysis V11}}

\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Fundamental shift from scarce exhaustible to renewable energy}

\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{7.5cm}

    Fossil fuel costs rise with exploitation (can also drop with innovation)
    \vspace{.5cm}

    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=7cm]{GlobalLiquidsSupplyCostCurve.png}

    \raggedright (2019 consumption was $\sim$37 billion barrels)
  \end{column}
  \begin{column}{7.5cm}

    Solar and wind costs drop with innovation (can rise locally where land is scarce)
    \vspace{.5cm}

\centering
\includegraphics[width=7cm]{bnef-swanson-2020.png}

\raggedright (1 TW of solar generates $\sim$1200 TWh/a compared to global electricity demand of $\sim$24,000 TWh/a)

  \end{column}
\end{columns}


\source{\href{https://about.bnef.com/blog/bloombergnef-2021-executive-factbook/}{BNEF 2021}}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{4 critical technologies: wind, solar, batteries, electrolyzers}

\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{6cm}
  \centering
  \includegraphics[height=6cm]{learning-4-beasts.png}
  \end{column}
  \begin{column}{8cm}

    All the critical technologies for the energy transition share a
    small unit size, enabling fast production and installation,
    economies of scale in manufacturing and learning-by-doing.



    \begin{itemize}
    \item \alert{Low-cost electricity} from wind and solar.
    \item \alert{Batteries} for mobility and balancing applications.
    \item \alert{Electrolytic hydrogen} (splitting water) for
      everything else: long-duration storage, aviation, shipping,
      industry.
    \item \alert{Heat pumps} (missing from graphic) for building comfort and some low-temperature industry applications.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{column}
\end{columns}

  \source{\hrefc{https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/energy_transition_paper-INET-working-paper.pdf}{Way et al, 2021}}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Hydrogen: the backstop of the energy transition}

  Clean hydrogen can do
  almost everything, but competes with direct electrification. Some
  say \alert{champagne of energy transition}; could also say
  \alert{backstop} for what efficiency and electrification don't reach.


  \includegraphics[width=14cm]{liebreich-ladder.jpg}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[fragile]
  \frametitle{But must take account of variability...}


  \includegraphics[width=7cm]{variability-berlin}
\hspace{.2cm}
  \includegraphics[width=6cm]{2015-11-30-0300}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[fragile]
  \frametitle{...and social \& political constraints}



\begin{columns}[T]

  \begin{column}{5cm}


\centering
\includegraphics[width=5cm]{nein_zur_monstertrasse}

  \end{column}


  \begin{column}{6.7cm}

    \vspace{.5cm}

    Sustainability doesn't just mean taking account of environmental constraints.

    \vspace{.5cm}

    There are also \alert{social and political constraints},
    particularly for transmission grid and onshore wind
    development.

    \vspace{.5cm}

\includegraphics[width=7cm]{Protestplakat-gegen-den-Bau-von-Windraedern-in-Hamburg-Deutschland.jpg}

  \end{column}

\end{columns}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Energy Transition: Several changes happening simultaneously}

  \alert{Energiewende}: The Energy Transition, consists of several parts:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item Transition to an energy system with low greenhouse gas emissions
  \item Renewables replace fossil-fuelled generation (and nuclear in some countries)
  \item Increasing integration of international electricity markets
  \item Better integration of transmission constraints in electricity markets
  \item Sector coupling: heating, transport and industry electrify
  \item More decentralised location and ownership in the power sector
  \end{itemize}

\end{frame}




\end{document}