This blog discusses future scenarios for the energy system. It also stores a record of my LinkedIn, BlueSky and older Twitter posts. All posts are licensed under CC BY 4.0.


The Minimal Methanol Economy as a Gap-Filler for High Electrification Scenarios

Date: 2025.05.19

As the hydrogen bubble deflates, what are the alternatives? We present a "minimal methanol economy": using methanol as a gap filler for the few sectors electrification can't reach.

New working paper together with Philipp Glaum, Fabian Neumann and Markus Millinger.


Price formation without fuel costs: the interaction of demand elasticity with storage bidding

Date: 2025.05.12

Stable electricity prices when wind and solar dominate? Sure! All you need is storage plus a little bit of demand elasticity.

New paper in Energy Economics with co-authors Fabian Neumann and Iegor Riepin.


model.energy/future: Challenging Winter 2024/5

Date: 2025.04.23

This past winter 2024/5 would have been challenging for a renewable system in Germany, due to a row of dark wind lulls (Dunkelflauten), combined with colder weather.


Welche Kosten ließen sich mit einer Gebotszonentrennung in Deutschland sparen?

Date: 2025.04.01

Bis 2045 ist die Einsparung sicherlich im zweistelligen Milliardenbereich, aber umfassende Studien dazu gibt es für Deutschland leider nicht. Hier fasse ich einige Studien zusammen.


Vorschlag für die Senkung der Netzengelte

Date: 2025.03.10

Vorschlag: Anstatt die Übertragungsnetze dauerhaft zu subventionieren, lieber kosteneffizienter bauen und ein Teil der Kosten mit einem Amortisationskonto um ein paar Jahre verschieben

Nach unserer Berechnung kann man mit kluger Planung etwa 92 Mrd. EUR (einen ,,Wumms'') sparen


Options for the Dunkelflaute

Date: 2024.11.10

The last few days were tough for our simulation of a future German renewable electricity system. The dreaded dark wind lull forces the model to rely on stored electrolytic hydrogen.

What would alternative clean supply systems look like?


Flexibility from biogas

Date: 2024.08.30

What flexibility do we need from biogas?

Shifting baseload generation by a few hours with small storage helps, but what we really need is seasonal flex by upgrading to biomethane/ol (and using most of it in other sectors).

A few thoughts on scaling, grids, liquids.


model.energy/future: Live future Germany power system updated with new loads

Date: 2024.02.21

"Future Germany with today's weather" site has experimental scenario with:


model.energy/future: Future German renewable power system with today's data

Date: 2024.01.23

A future German renewable power system running on today's market datascaled u up.


Methanol for ultra-long-duration energy storage anywhere

Date: 2023.10.31

A renewable power system that is reliable whatever the weather? 🌬️⛅️

The case for e-methanol with carbon cycling ♻️::liquid storage that can be built anywhere


All your carbon shall be methanol

Date: 2023.10.03

Arguments for mopping up all carbon in wastes and residues into methanol; use it to supply sectors that can't be electrified

TL,DR: methanol is liquid; easier to transport/store than CH4/H2/CO2; costs scale down nicely to multi-MW size


Mitigating heat demand peaks in buildings in a highly renewable European energy system

Date: 2022.03.15


Learning effects lead to path dependency

Date: 2021.05.22


William Armstrong's 1863 admirable speech

Date: 2020.10.22

C. Darwin: an "admirable speech"

In 1863, William Armstrong advocates:


History of green hydrogen

Date: 2020.10.17


Nothing new about electrolytic hydrogen

Date: 2020.07.31

Despite the current hype, there's nothing new about electrolytic hydrogen.

What was missing was abundant low cost power.


History of ideas for integrating renewable energy

Date: 2020.03.06

I would love to read a history of ideas to integrate renewable energy

This 1955 book is very familiar:


Market value decline is a policy artefact

Date: 2020.02.17

VRE cannibalisation is a policy artefact, not a physical system constraint.


model.energy: Build your own clean electricity supply

Date: 2019.12.05


First Coherent Renewables Scenario: Bent Sørensen in 1970s

Date: 2019.06.23

Who came up with the first coherent plan to use renewables to cover all our energy needs?

My money is on Bent Sørensen, who wrote two ground-breaking papers in the 1970s.


Burden of proof

Date: 2018.05.31

In this post we provide some commentary on our recent paper "Response to 'Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems'".